What do you put in the “naughty” kids stocking this year when coal is just as scarce as presents?
Today’s morning links include no shortage of shortages… along with Bitcoin predictions, BNPL trends and the real reason(s) employers can’t keep workers.
Enjoy!
Links for Tuesday, October 12, 2021
- WSJ: Chinese developer asks to delay bond repayment
- “Modern Land” wants to defer paying $250 million due later this month
- Shares down more than 40% this year
- Companies bonds trading at 25c on the dollar
- WSJ: China’s $5T Reckoning
- More than $5T in debt developers took on when times were good
- Nearly double from 2016 – more than entire output of Japan last year
- Rely heavily on “presales”
- Well over 2 million acres of floor space under construction
- McKinsey – record number of employees quitting
- More than 15 million US workers quit since April 2021
- Employees want identity / connection — not just payment
- 40% of employees said they re at least somewhat likely to leave current job in next 3-6 months
- 53% of employers are experiencing higher turnover – 64% expect this to continue
- Satisfied employers tempted to quit as options expand
- WSJ: Labor Market Sideline
- Many women yet to return to work after crisis
- Unemployment rate fell to 4.8% in Sept. — but only added 194k jobs
- Number of people not in labor force who cited pandemic as reason rose for first time since January (1.6m)
- Coindesk: Option market pricing 20% probability of $65k bitcoin
- Impressive rally considering it happened during “risk off” period for equities
- Traders anticipating potential SEC approval of futures-based bitcoin ETF
- Options market placing 20% probability of bitcoin ending Oct at new all-time high of $65k
- Crypto focused funds saw a surge of new inflows last week
- BBG: Global energy crisis piles pressure on aluminum supply
- Aluminum at highest price since 2008
- (Aluminum is an energy-intensive metal to manufacture)
- Each ton takes enough power to run an average home for 3.5 years
- Aluminum up 3.3% Monday, Copper up 1.9%, Zinc up 2.5%
- A number of aluminum plants in China being mothballed
- BBG: Derivatives show US oil supplies tightening
- Gap between barrels for delivery in November and December surged
- Widest premium in two years
- Inventories expected to shrink — global energy crunch
- WSJ: Rising costs for solar panels (energy crunch)
- 80% of solar-grade polysilicon came from China in 2020
- Silicon prices more than doubled this month
- Producers have less than 3 days of inventory
- BBG: TSM record sales – Auto / iPhone demand fuels orders
- Gap between ordering chip and delivery is 21.7 weeks (new record)
- Marqeta: BNPL vs Credit Cards — The New Reality of Credit
- 76% of consumers use credit cards
- 51% have used BNPL service
- 68% use credit cards weekly
- 59% BNPL users would use BNPL to replace credit card
- Marketoonist: Santa and the supply chain
- “we’re out of coal too!”
