I’m experimenting with the idea of posting research links I come across each day.
Check back often, or refresh this page throughout the week for new content.
Comment or send me an email [Zach @ ZachScheidt.com] and let me know if you find these helpful!
Thursday 11/10
- Economist: Inflation is too high when the public notices.
- Some economists argue a 3% or 4% inflation target is appropriate.
- Federal Reserve: The new disconnect between mortgages and house equity.
- Homeowners now have large amounts of equity compared to reasonable debt.
- Rent: Monthly look at price trends across U.S.
- National rent prices trending down month-over-month for first time in 2022.
- Year-over-year increases are still up 8.8%.
- WSJ: Binance walks away from deal to rescue FTX
- FTX faces a shortfall of up to $8 billion.
- Bitcoin fell below $16,000.
- CNBC: Consumer prices rose 0.4% in October
- Monthly inflation was below expectations driven by used car price declines.
- Still, inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% target
- WSJ: Inflation report leaves Fed on track for 0.5-point hike.
- Fed members have signaled a desire to slow down the pace of rate hikes.
- The October CPI report showed a 7.7% inflation rate.
Wednesday 11/9
- Reuters: China’s covid epicenter shifts – outbreaks widen.
- Global manufacturing hub Guangzhou is vulnerable.
- CoinDesk: FTX agrees to sell to rival Binance – Liquidity scare.
- Binance is the biggest crypto exchange by volume.
- Dozens of customers were unable to withdraw funds from FTX.
- BBG: Gaming market reactions to midterm elections
- Split government should reduce volatility from political uncertainty.
- Republican congress traditionally sends equities and risk assets higher.
- Democrat control would lead to spending – and inflation.
- Economist: Mild weather sent European gas prices plummeting.
- Most of the continent’s LNG ports are in western Europe.
- Full storage tanks leave LNG tankers nowhere to unload.
- BBG: Europes energy crunch will trigger years of shortages.
- Europe is buying fuel that used to go to developing countries.
- Power shortages, factory shutdowns could lead to social unrest.
- BBG: Goldman cuts S&P 500 earnings estimate.
- Profit margin contraction in the third quarter signals more pain ahead.
- Goldman lowered profit expectations for 2022, 2023 and 2024.
- WSJ: Elon Musk sells almost $4b of Tesla stock.
- Musk has sold more than $19 billion of Tesla stock so far this year.
- Shares of TSLA are down more than 50% from last November peak.
Tuesday 11/8
- WSJ: More workers get side hustles to keep up with inflation
- The number of Americans working an extra side job is up 6% to 4.5mm.
- Overall job market is still strong but showing signs of cooling.
- Reuters: Investors dump Lyft as Uber takes market share
- LYFT shares dropped 20% on Tuesday.
- Active riders on Lyft’s platform grew just 7.2% last quarter.
- CNBC: These stocks could benefit from a GOP victory
- A republican win would likely mean higher defense spending.
- Communications services, energy and industrials as well.
- WSJ: What are the new tax brackets for 2023?
- High inflation has prompted larger increases in the IRS thresholds.
- Standard deductions are also getting a boost.
- CNBC: 25% of Americans want to escape LA & NYC
- Top 10 destinations include Phoenix, Miami and Las Vegas
- WSJ: Don’t expect cheap airfares to come back soon
- The CPI for airfare was up 43% year-over-year in September
- Travel demand continues to grow, but capacity is limited.
Monday 11/7
- WSJ: Inflation, recession fears have shoppers trading down
- Credit card spending on luxury goods trending lower (RL, CPRI, TPR).
- Negative for high-price retail like LULU?
- Middle income consumers ($50k to $125k) slowed spending the most.
- Barrons: Meta braces for large-scale layoffs
- WSJ: Still hiring on all cylinders
- US Economy added 261k jobs in October – down from Sept. but above estimates.
- Unemployment rate rose from 3.5% to 3.7%
- Still far more unfilled jobs available than unemployed workers.
- BBG: Shale unemployment plummets – US explorers vie for crews
- Labor shortages one of the biggest hurdles holding back production.
- Reuters: China vows to continue with covid strategy
- “dynamic-clearing” approach to clear cases as soon as they emerge.
